2015 Global cotton market outlook
——Andrei GuitchountsDirector of Trade Analysis, ICAC
He analyzed world cotton market trend and projected the future market based on supply and demand.
Firstly, decline in cotton prices during 2014/15 lead to a decline
in world cotton area in 2015/16. With area in decline and yields rising
slowly, world production is expected to remain below 24 million tons for
the next several seasons. The largest declines in production in 2015/16
are projected for China, India, USA and Pakistan.
The market share of cotton declined further in 2014 and will remain
stable in 2015. Competition with chemical fibers is a constant challenge
for cotton and in the long run. In 2015/16, world cotton consumption is
forecast to increase.
World cotton trade declined in 2014/15 because of a reduction in
imports by China. World trade is forecast to remain stable trade in
2015/16. Imports outside of China are projected to move up. Exports by
Brazil and Australia are projected to decline.
Stocks held outside of China are expected to decrease by the end of
2015/16. However, this will depend in part on how the Chinese government
handles its reserves.
At last, Andrei Guilchounts pointed out huge stockpile of China will
still press world cotton prices and planting areas. In 2015/16, cotton
prices are projected at an interval from 57 to 87 cents per pound.